Public Policy---EXIT Strategy

I just heard Hillary Clinton on Geo TV that was live telecasting her press conference from Pakistan. In the backdrop of US and Pak Flags Glamorous Khar the foreign minister of Pakistan was trying to answer some tough questions. She was clearly appearing a novice. To me it appeared as if she was a mouth piece of someone and definitely not the one who commanded real power and ability to give meaning to the good English that she was vomiting. The stage is almost set for action in “days and weeks and not in months and years” said articulate and clear Clinton. It sends chill in your spine especially when you sit in Kabul where not only the strategy for actions will be decided but is possibly also a place of action.

Days and weeks remind me of the paucity of time in the field of Public Policy. It is almost always the case. The decision is always quick but the tradeoffs in the process impact you for years and generations. I now wait for history to unfold in this case because decisions will have to be made and will be made.

One such decision was made at the beginning of this year to be precise in February 2011. Let us connect the dots backwards.

A young officer aged 27 became the head of a nation in a blood less coup way back in 1969 aiming to sweep away capitalism and socialism in his country. At the age of 69 he met a violent and vengeful death after 42 years of rule in a continent where many populations have less than 4 decades as the life expectancy. It is ironical that he lay flat in a pool of blood exposing half-naked torso, with eyes staring vacantly at those whom he considered “rats” and who jubilantly were yanking his head up and down by his hair. The statement ‘I live in the hearts of millions’ that he said as recently as February, was rudely mocking him. This was all the more ironical as he wrote in the Green Book - a required reading in all Libyan schools “In the era of the masses, power is in the hands of the people themselves and leaders disappear forever”.

Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi the longest-serving Arab or African leader was the face of Libya. Born in Sirte a town on the craggy edge of Mediterranean not far from Tripoli, to an illiterate Bedouin parents , he was the king of a sizeable number. Seen factually, Libyans owe a lot to him. He was the one who gave Libya its name. We no longer confuse between Liberia, lebnanon and Libya.

Though oil was discovered in 1959 Libya was then desperately poor. It was only post 1969 it forced oil companies to cede majority stakes in exchange for continued access to the country’s oil fields, demanding a greater share of the profits. This changed the rules of the game with the oil giants and was widely emulated across all oil producing states. With the increased revenue, came roads, hospitals, schools and housing. Life expectancy, which averaged 51 years in 1969, is now over 74. Literacy is 88 percent. Per capita annual income is above $12,000. This is in spite of United Nations economic sanctions in the most of 80ies and 90ies that were finally lifted in 2003.

But where did “the king of Kings” err? Was it the disconnect from the changing reality or the failure to read the writings on the wall? Or was it the lack of institutions of check and balance?

Whatever it be, the one  failure for certain was the lack of his ability on deciding an effective “Exit Strategy”.

“Exit strategy” reminds me of an anecdote at Lee Kuan Yew School of public policy. I was slightly late to one of the post lunch seminars. As would be normal I occupied one of the chairs next to the entrance so as to not disturb my cohorts. After a couple of minutes, our Dean Kishore walked in and grabbed a seat next to me. Naughty me, I poked “Seems you wish to leave quietly and smartly”. And the response left me with an important lesson in Public policy. He said “Uttam, it is important to have an exit strategy. Look at the condition of America in Iraq. It was easy to get into but aren’t they struggling to get out?” How true is that learning? I am experiencing it day in and day out here in Afghanistan. And interestingly it is again America.

My dear, “the brother leader,” “the guide to the era of the masses,” “the king of kings of Africa” or “the leader of the revolution”; whatever way you wish to call yourself,  Exit Strategy is very important and timely smart exit makes all the difference says Public Policy.

Last but not the least the very institutions that you think are a threat may save you if shaped and nurtured. Because anything that would last are Values and Institutions and not whims and fancies. It is not out of place to note that Libya had no parliament, no unified military command, no political parties, no unions, no civil society and no nongovernmental organizations. And of course Mr Gaddaffi had no intelligent “Exit Strategy” that could have saved his rule and family from falling like a pack of cards.