A new Turkey in the making?

Mohamed Bouazizi the fruit vendor who set himself on fire to protest poverty and government repression in Tunisia, fuelling mass protest must be keenly watching the Tunisian elections today from his heavenly abode.

I am wondering how he would be reacting to Marcel Marzouki, founder of a liberal political party who said “Tunisians showed the world how to make a peaceful revolution without icons, without ideology, and now we are going to show the world how we can build a real democracy,” and to his mother who called the elections “a moment of victory for her son who died defending dignity and liberty.”

What would be the thoughts of former President Zinedine el Abidine Ben Ali who he has fled to Saudi Arabia after 23 years in power, watching serpentine queues back home on his TV screen.

And what is going on in the minds of more than seven million people of voting age who will elect a 217-seat assembly that will draft a new constitution and appoint an interim government. And what promise it holds for those in their 50s and 60s who have voted for the first time in their lives.

One thing is certain this democratic moment carries an enormous burden of expectation, not just in Tunisia but worldwide..

“There is going to be social justice, freedom, democracy, and they are going to tackle the unemployment issue”. “Today is the day of independence.” “Today we got our freedom, and our dignity, from the simple act of voting”---- is what journalists from the action scene have reported.

The range is from Mr Ben Alis’s utter pessimism to huge optimism of the masses. Some may wish to see the spring add more and more blossoms while many few would wish it withers away soon. And the critical ingredients exist in opulence with capacity to overwhelm either side of the Table

I wait to see what future holds for Tunisia...Focus on Policies on emotive issues of banning alcohol sales or head scarf or the issues of corruption, jobs, education, justice, freedom of speech, freedom to dissent or the mundane freedom to walk fearlessly across the road, The Guy in the photo is watching with hope and is possibly desperate to decide his side on the new road that Tunisia takes from here.

... Because the decisions will have its tradeoffs impacting generations and Yes you don’t experience enjoyable spring often.

Public Policy---EXIT Strategy

I just heard Hillary Clinton on Geo TV that was live telecasting her press conference from Pakistan. In the backdrop of US and Pak Flags Glamorous Khar the foreign minister of Pakistan was trying to answer some tough questions. She was clearly appearing a novice. To me it appeared as if she was a mouth piece of someone and definitely not the one who commanded real power and ability to give meaning to the good English that she was vomiting. The stage is almost set for action in “days and weeks and not in months and years” said articulate and clear Clinton. It sends chill in your spine especially when you sit in Kabul where not only the strategy for actions will be decided but is possibly also a place of action.

Days and weeks remind me of the paucity of time in the field of Public Policy. It is almost always the case. The decision is always quick but the tradeoffs in the process impact you for years and generations. I now wait for history to unfold in this case because decisions will have to be made and will be made.

One such decision was made at the beginning of this year to be precise in February 2011. Let us connect the dots backwards.

A young officer aged 27 became the head of a nation in a blood less coup way back in 1969 aiming to sweep away capitalism and socialism in his country. At the age of 69 he met a violent and vengeful death after 42 years of rule in a continent where many populations have less than 4 decades as the life expectancy. It is ironical that he lay flat in a pool of blood exposing half-naked torso, with eyes staring vacantly at those whom he considered “rats” and who jubilantly were yanking his head up and down by his hair. The statement ‘I live in the hearts of millions’ that he said as recently as February, was rudely mocking him. This was all the more ironical as he wrote in the Green Book - a required reading in all Libyan schools “In the era of the masses, power is in the hands of the people themselves and leaders disappear forever”.

Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi the longest-serving Arab or African leader was the face of Libya. Born in Sirte a town on the craggy edge of Mediterranean not far from Tripoli, to an illiterate Bedouin parents , he was the king of a sizeable number. Seen factually, Libyans owe a lot to him. He was the one who gave Libya its name. We no longer confuse between Liberia, lebnanon and Libya.

Though oil was discovered in 1959 Libya was then desperately poor. It was only post 1969 it forced oil companies to cede majority stakes in exchange for continued access to the country’s oil fields, demanding a greater share of the profits. This changed the rules of the game with the oil giants and was widely emulated across all oil producing states. With the increased revenue, came roads, hospitals, schools and housing. Life expectancy, which averaged 51 years in 1969, is now over 74. Literacy is 88 percent. Per capita annual income is above $12,000. This is in spite of United Nations economic sanctions in the most of 80ies and 90ies that were finally lifted in 2003.

But where did “the king of Kings” err? Was it the disconnect from the changing reality or the failure to read the writings on the wall? Or was it the lack of institutions of check and balance?

Whatever it be, the one  failure for certain was the lack of his ability on deciding an effective “Exit Strategy”.

“Exit strategy” reminds me of an anecdote at Lee Kuan Yew School of public policy. I was slightly late to one of the post lunch seminars. As would be normal I occupied one of the chairs next to the entrance so as to not disturb my cohorts. After a couple of minutes, our Dean Kishore walked in and grabbed a seat next to me. Naughty me, I poked “Seems you wish to leave quietly and smartly”. And the response left me with an important lesson in Public policy. He said “Uttam, it is important to have an exit strategy. Look at the condition of America in Iraq. It was easy to get into but aren’t they struggling to get out?” How true is that learning? I am experiencing it day in and day out here in Afghanistan. And interestingly it is again America.

My dear, “the brother leader,” “the guide to the era of the masses,” “the king of kings of Africa” or “the leader of the revolution”; whatever way you wish to call yourself,  Exit Strategy is very important and timely smart exit makes all the difference says Public Policy.

Last but not the least the very institutions that you think are a threat may save you if shaped and nurtured. Because anything that would last are Values and Institutions and not whims and fancies. It is not out of place to note that Libya had no parliament, no unified military command, no political parties, no unions, no civil society and no nongovernmental organizations. And of course Mr Gaddaffi had no intelligent “Exit Strategy” that could have saved his rule and family from falling like a pack of cards.

RAVAN

My wife was taking my daughter who is 2 years 8 months old for her maiden experience of seeing Ravan the symbol of evil go up in flames. The area in Dwarka where it is organised is normally great for comfortable driving by Delhi standards. Come Dussehra evening, it is banned for motor traffic. Similar to rush hour, People throng the area in such quickness that to me this appears as if each person has transformed himself into a car honking and elbowing the other like the daily morning madness to reach office 5 minutes faster.
People walk to witness this annual sport for fun and some deep purpose. Zara was made to walk too. On the way she complained of not able to make pace with the maddening crowd and wanted to be carried. “She has become smarter, Look at her ability to invent excuses” is what Suja told me over phone when she was on her way. When she could not convince her about the goodness of walking, I was asked to hang and call later.
It first rained and then started drizzling in Kabul today. Hopes for fresh look of the aging trees and hills around which has been rare in my two and half month’s stay brightened my imagination. While taking the first sip of coffee of the day peeping through my cosy room window I thought what a coincidence? Dusty Kabul was cleaning itself and back home India was preparing to clean itself of its vices. The process of Ravan getting engulfed in flames appeared before me. Soon with a public resolve to keep away the vices, effigies of demon king Ravan will have its fate sealed in powerful flames interspersed with loud bangs of fireworks.
I was curious to know my daughter’s reactions as it was her first experience that she may probably remember for some time.
Soon I finished my milk coffee; a deafening echoing thunder accompanied with lightning transported me to Dwarka in New Delhi. Here stood a tall Ravan, elegantly dressed waiting to meet the ends of justice. My imagination saw a much taller and fatter Ravan as compared to last year imposingly staring at me. My thoughts started wandering: Ravan is trying to catch our attention and imaginations by increasing its size and volume but poor guy fails every time. I must salute the spirit of this teacher Ravan who each year repeats the same lessons to a ever growing crowd of making the society around us happier. But is this ritual meeting its purpose? Confused I thought let us have dinner..............
After dinner I called up home to know the reactions of my child..... My wife thought better to put her directly to me..... She said “Papa bechara Ravan suffered great pain, it was burnt, please let us go and apply some medicine”. I smiled and assured her of the needful.
Then words of Gandhi flashed “Hate not the Sinner but the Sin” I am wondering will I listen and vow to clean myself to begin with before becoming a part of a crowd who refuses to take the basic lesson and celebrates hurling pain in the name of cleaning the society at large and spreading a message that is probably losing its meaning and purpose?